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Climate Pseudo-Science

December 11, 2009

The behavior of the scientists involved in “Climategate” is simply embarrassing.  I’ve read about it and thought about it for a few weeks now.  I’ve “written” this post in my head over and over in my head but found it difficult to actually write because I can’t focus.  If you want the details, your best source is at Small Dead Animals.

My gut reaction is “How can scientists behave like this?” but I know that is a naive question.  I really shouldn’t be surprised.  These scientists lied and manipulated data to support their predetermined conclusions.  So stupid.  That’s not how science works.

Can you imagine if a drug company had similarly manipulated data to make it look like their new drug was a miracle worker?   That’s what happened at CRU.  The analysis was showing a decline in temperatures which didn’t support the theory of global warming so they changed the programs to “hide the decline”.  Ta da!  The earth is warming!  Their manipulated data and results prove it!

That’s not how modeling is supposed to work.  You’re supposed to take real observations and look for patterns to predict the future.  If your model includes enough of the important factors, your predictions will be quite accurate.  You test the model by making predictions and comparing those to the truth.  If the predictions don’t match the truth (ie, model predicts warming but cooling is observed) then you CHANGE THE MODEL to improve it’s predictive ability.  You DON’T change the input data.

In science, we should present what is true, not what we wish were true.

I’ve tried to teach that a negative result does not mean that the research is a failure.  A negative result is a valid result that should cause you to reconsider your assumptions.  The CRU should have published their results showing the decline in temperatures.  The problem, which you’ll understand if you’ve read the e-mails, is that the climate research community seems to suppress publication of research contrary to the party line.

Makes me want to scream.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. December 11, 2009 4:37 pm

    Stunning, I didn’t know about that up to the present. Cheers!!

  2. crazybengal permalink*
    December 12, 2009 4:58 pm

    The most serious problems are found in the code of the climate models – the “scientists” have made data part of the code, which is a no no. The data and the code for the model should not be connected. Read the code – the comments embedded in the code are hilarious.

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